大幅走强！中美大豆贸易破冰，美豆站上1100美分关口

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in U.S. soybean prices driven by expectations of increased trade with China, following a consensus reached between the two countries to expand agricultural trade [1][2][4]. Group 1: Trade Developments - On November 5, the Chinese government announced adjustments to tariffs on U.S. imports, coinciding with a consensus on expanding agricultural trade, including a commitment from China to purchase at least 12 million tons of soybeans in the current period and a minimum of 25 million tons annually over the next three years [2][4]. - The U.S. soybean prices have reached a 15-month high, with main contracts surpassing 1100 cents per bushel, marking the most significant increase of the year [2][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the recent U.S.-China meetings, domestic soybean meal futures in China surged by 1.92%, nearing 3050 yuan per ton, the highest in a month and a half [5]. - The soybean meal ETF saw a net inflow of 42.71 million yuan, with the fund's year-to-date return reaching 8.59% [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Analysts indicate that China typically imports 20 to 30 million tons of U.S. soybeans annually, and the recent agreement could significantly reduce U.S. soybean ending stocks, shifting the market from oversupply to a tighter balance [7]. - Brazil has become the largest supplier of soybeans to China, with expectations of increased production, but there may be a supply gap for China in late 2025 to early 2026 due to seasonal export limitations from Brazil [8]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The future of U.S. soybean purchases by China will depend on whether these are policy-driven or commercial purchases, as the tariff structure will influence the competitiveness of U.S. soybeans compared to Brazilian alternatives [8].