金价，反弹！

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising gold prices and the positive outlook for gold stocks driven by market factors, including MSCI index adjustments and bullish predictions from financial institutions [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Impact - The U.S. federal government shutdown has reached a new high, raising concerns among investors about the negative impact on the U.S. economy, which contributed to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and an increase in international gold prices [1]. - As of the latest close, the December gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange reached $3992.9 per ounce, marking a 0.82% increase [1]. Group 2: Gold Stocks Performance - Hong Kong gold stocks experienced a collective rebound, primarily driven by two favorable factors: the inclusion of multiple gold stocks in the MSCI index, which is expected to bring in passive capital inflows, and significant upward revisions of gold price forecasts by international institutions [3][4]. - MSCI's recent announcement included the addition of nine Hong Kong stocks, including Zijin Mining, to the MSCI China Index, which will take effect after November 24, 2025. This adjustment is significant for the gold sector as index funds typically reposition before new constituents are effective, leading to strong support for gold stocks [4]. Group 3: Future Gold Price Predictions - UBS's global research department predicts a target gold price of $4200 per ounce by 2026, with potential for prices to reach $5000 if the Federal Reserve's policies become overly dovish or lose independence [5]. - Long-term views from various financial institutions suggest that ongoing U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credibility will enhance gold's monetary attributes, while central bank gold purchases and rising geopolitical risks in major economies will further boost gold's safe-haven appeal [5]. - Eastern Securities emphasizes that deteriorating fiat currency credibility and dual benefits from safe-haven demand will continue to drive gold prices upward, supported by weakening currencies in major economies [5].