【安泰科】工业硅周评—期货下调、现货持稳（2025年11月5日）

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a divergence between futures and spot prices, with futures prices declining while spot prices remain stable [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - From October 30 to November 5, the main futures contract price dropped from 9155 CNY/ton to 9020 CNY/ton, a decrease of 135 CNY/ton [1]. - The national comprehensive price for industrial silicon on November 5 was 9174 CNY/ton, with specific grades priced at 8708 CNY/ton for 553, 9055 CNY/ton for 441, and 9658 CNY/ton for 421 [1][3]. - Regional price variations were noted, with prices in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan at 8798 CNY/ton, 9753 CNY/ton, and 9950 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic industrial silicon market is facing insufficient support from downstream demand, particularly in the organic silicon sector, which is entering a traditional off-peak season [2]. - Despite attempts by production companies to stabilize prices through production cuts, the price of organic silicon DMC fell by 200 CNY/ton to 11000 CNY/ton [2]. - In the aluminum alloy sector, demand continues to grow due to strong performance in downstream industries like automotive [2]. Group 3: Market Balance and Future Outlook - The industrial silicon market is currently in a phase of "weak reality and strong cost" dynamics, with spot prices remaining stable due to production cut expectations and cost support [2]. - Futures prices are fluctuating around the 9000 CNY/ton mark, indicating a cautious balance between demand expectations and cost support [2]. - Future market trends will depend on the extent of production cuts in the southwestern region and the recovery of actual downstream demand [2].