刚刚宣布！不降息了

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4%, aligning with market expectations, and pausing the trend of quarterly rate cuts that began in August 2024 [2][4][8]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged reflects concerns over high overall inflation in the UK, despite a more balanced risk outlook regarding inflation and a more pronounced risk from weak demand [9]. - The Monetary Policy Committee voted 5 to 4 in favor of maintaining the rate, with Governor Bailey casting the decisive vote [12][13]. Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The Bank of England raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.5% from 1.25%, while slightly lowering the CPI forecast for the same year [10]. - Inflation is expected to decline to around 3% by early 2026 and reach the 2% target by the second quarter of 2027 [10]. Group 3: Currency Impact - Following the announcement, the British pound fell approximately 30 points against the US dollar, indicating potential ongoing pressure on the currency [5][16]. - Analysts predict that if the Bank of England cuts rates in December, the pound may depreciate further, with expectations for the euro to rise against the pound [16]. Group 4: Upcoming Fiscal Considerations - The upcoming autumn budget is anticipated to influence future rate decisions, with expectations of tax increases to address fiscal deficits, which could further suppress consumer demand and alleviate inflationary pressures [18]. - The uncertainty surrounding the budget has led to a cautious approach from businesses and households, potentially stalling economic activity [18].