电子半导体产业研究方法论（附PPT）

Methodology - The core of the electronic sector research is to "embrace change and capture the ends of the industrial chain (wafer manufacturing & terminal products)" [3] - The research divides into two main lines: "domestic production" (equipment, materials, IC manufacturing) and "market-oriented" (consumer electronics, automotive, communication) [3] - The focus is on "core focus + dual-line parallel + differentiated strategies" [3] - The ends of the industrial chain are the most valuable segments: wafer manufacturing is the core manufacturing link in the semiconductor industry, with the highest technical barriers and capital investment [3] - The dual-line parallel approach reflects the unique attributes of China's electronic semiconductor industry, where domestic production corresponds to policy-driven and import substitution logic, while market-oriented corresponds to demand-driven and global competition logic [3] - Differentiated strategies are necessary to avoid a "one-size-fits-all" approach, as different sectors have distinct driving logic [3] iPhone Case Study - The article uses iPhone sales and market share data to illustrate its four development stages: innovation and breakthrough, diversification and expansion, transformation and challenge, revival and leap [6] - It emphasizes that "technology changes life and production, and the essence of growth is the growth of demand" [6] - Four supports for demand growth are identified: consumer group expansion, increased payment willingness, desire for new features, and expanded usage scenarios [6] - Investment insights from the product lifecycle are discussed, highlighting different investment logic at each stage [6][8] - The "iPhone moment" is deemed replicable, suggesting that any electronic semiconductor sector's explosion requires a flagship product or technology to activate potential demand [6][7] Valuation Issues - The DDM model serves as a theoretical foundation, while relative valuation is the practical basis, emphasizing the logic of "capital expenditure → revenue → profit" corresponding to "PB → PS → PE" [18] - High valuation premiums stem from "growth certainty," where market expectations for long-term growth drive high valuations [19] - The article outlines the appropriate valuation indicators for different stages: PB during capital expenditure, PS during revenue growth, and PE during profit stability [18]