特朗普回应美最高法院大法官关税质疑

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenge in the U.S. Supreme Court regarding President Trump's authority to impose broad tariffs on trade partners under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [3][4]. Group 1: Supreme Court Proceedings - The Supreme Court held a three-hour oral argument regarding Trump's tariff authority, with most justices expressing skepticism about the government's legal basis [4]. - The current Supreme Court consists of six conservative justices and three liberal justices, with the liberal justices openly opposing Trump's use of emergency tariff powers [7]. - Chief Justice Roberts raised concerns about the absence of the term "tariff" in the IEEPA and emphasized that taxation is traditionally a congressional power [7]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Tariffs - According to Goldman Sachs, American consumers are expected to bear over 55% of the tariff costs, with businesses absorbing 22% and foreign exporters taking on 18% [7]. - The average effective tariff rate faced by U.S. consumers is estimated at 17.9%, the highest since 1934, leading to a projected 1.3% increase in price levels and an average loss of $1,800 per household [8]. - The tariffs are anticipated to raise the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025 and by 0.7 percentage points by the end of 2026 [8]. Group 3: Potential Outcomes and Alternatives - If the Supreme Court rules against the emergency tariffs, companies involved in the lawsuit may receive refunds, while others might face complex administrative processes for reimbursement [9]. - The article mentions that the government has a "Plan B" in case of an unfavorable ruling, which could involve other legal provisions, though they may be less effective than IEEPA [10]. - The market has shown resilience despite the tariffs, indicating that if the court overturns them, it could be seen as a victory for institutional checks and balances, potentially strengthening long-term market confidence [10].