关键数据再“缺席”！美联储，降息大消息

Market Performance - On November 7, US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.16% to 46,987.1 points, the S&P 500 up by 0.13% to 6,728.8 points, and the Nasdaq down by 0.21% to 23,004.54 points. For the week, the Dow fell by 1.21%, the S&P 500 by 1.63%, and the Nasdaq by 3.04% [1] - European stock indices all closed lower, with the German DAX down by 0.77% to 23,550.71 points, the French CAC40 down by 0.18% to 7,950.18 points, and the UK FTSE 100 down by 0.55% to 9,682.57 points. For the week, the DAX fell by 1.7%, the CAC40 by 2.1%, and the FTSE 100 by 0.36% [2] Employment Data - The US Labor Statistics Bureau failed to release the October non-farm payroll report due to a government shutdown, marking the second consecutive absence of this report. Economists had previously expected a reduction of 60,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5% [4] - In October, US companies announced over 153,000 layoffs, the highest for this period in over 20 years, and nearly 1.1 million layoffs have been announced this year, the highest since the pandemic began in 2020. Factors contributing to this increase include the rise of artificial intelligence, slowing consumer and business spending, and rising costs [5][6] Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence in the US has dropped to its lowest level in over three years, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index falling from 53.6 in October to 50.3 in November. The current economic conditions index decreased by 6.3 points to a record low of 52.3, reflecting growing concerns about the impact of the government shutdown [6] Semiconductor Industry - TSMC plans to raise prices for advanced chips manufactured using processes below 5nm, notifying major clients including Apple. The average price for chips using TSMC's 2nm process is expected to reach $280, which is at least a 50% increase compared to the 3nm process. This price hike is attributed to high costs associated with new technology and production line modifications [8][9] Federal Reserve Policy - St. Louis Fed President Musalem indicated that there is still room for 50 to 75 basis points of policy adjustment, emphasizing that the Fed's recent monetary policy actions aimed to support the labor market [9][10] - Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson supported the recent 25 basis point rate cut, citing increased risks to the labor market and the need for cautious policy adjustments as rates approach neutral levels [11] Commodity Market - On November 7, international precious metal futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.42% to $4,007.8 per ounce and silver futures up by 0.57% to $48.225 per ounce. The ongoing government shutdown has intensified economic data concerns, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [12]