“美联储或将很快需要启动扩表，应对流动性需求”

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is approaching a new phase of "liquidity replenishment" after two years of balance sheet reduction, with potential plans to expand its securities holdings soon [3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Strategy - John Williams emphasized that any future bond purchases by the Federal Reserve would aim to maintain bank reserves at "adequate levels" and would not indicate a change in the fundamental stance of monetary policy [5][6]. - The next step in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet strategy involves assessing whether reserve levels have transitioned from "slightly above adequate" to "adequate" [5][10]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Recent fluctuations in the repurchase market indicate a transition of liquidity from "abundant" to "adequate," with some repo rates exceeding the Federal Reserve's target range, reflecting increased demand for short-term funds [9]. - The usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) has surged, reaching the highest frequency since its establishment in 2021, with borrowing exceeding $10 billion on two occasions last week [9]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Market data suggests that financial institutions have increasingly utilized repo facilities since October to address short-term funding pressures, with some analysts predicting that the Federal Reserve may officially initiate "reserve management" bond purchases in the first quarter of 2026 [10]. - Williams reiterated that reserve management bond purchases would be a natural step in executing the adequate reserves strategy, emphasizing that the goal remains to ensure smooth market operations rather than stimulate economic growth [10].