AI泡沫论再起，但这次不一样

Core Viewpoint - The current AI wave is characterized by the maturity of technology, the scale of capital investment, and the authenticity of commercial demand, making it more certain than past technological revolutions [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Following Nvidia's market cap reaching $5 trillion, global concerns about an AI bubble have emerged, leading to a decline in AI-related stocks across major markets including the US, Japan, South Korea, and China [2]. - The current market correction is largely a recalibration of short-term valuation anchors and profit realization speeds after extreme optimism, representing a financial phenomenon rather than a refutation of the underlying industry logic [2][3]. Group 2: Historical Context - The article draws parallels between the current situation and historical bubbles, such as the 17th-century tulip mania and the 2000 internet bubble, emphasizing the cyclical nature of capital market enthusiasm and subsequent corrections [2][3]. - The infrastructure laid during the previous internet bubble, despite being seen as a resource misallocation at the time, significantly accelerated the evolution of technological foundations that support today's mobile internet era [3][4]. Group 3: AI as a Paradigm Shift - AI, particularly generative AI, represents a profound paradigm shift in productivity rather than merely an innovation in software or business models, necessitating a different valuation approach compared to traditional tech stocks [3][4]. - The current AI revolution is distinct from the early internet era, as it presents clearer business models and applications, such as Microsoft's Copilot and AIGC, which are rapidly proving their utility in enterprise processes [4][5]. Group 4: Long-term Perspective - Concerns about a potential bubble should focus less on short-term market fluctuations and more on the ability to navigate through cycles, as market volatility is inherent to capital behavior [5]. - Even if a bubble exists, it may provide necessary valuation nutrients for the emergence of new industries, and excessive fear of bubbles could lead to missing out on significant future opportunities [5].