水贝市场暂时处于“半停滞状态” 黄金新政背后的产业链变局

Core Viewpoint - The newly implemented gold tax policy is increasing tax costs for downstream enterprises in the gold jewelry industry, squeezing profit margins in the short term. Some companies are passing these costs onto consumers by raising product prices. The industry anticipates that the new policy will lead to a further concentration of gold trading in formal markets, promoting overall transparency and standardization in the sector [1][4]. Tax Policy Impact - The new tax policy, effective from November 1, 2025, distinguishes between investment and non-investment uses of gold, resulting in increased tax burdens for non-investment purposes. This change is expected to reshape the existing market dynamics and lead to a significant industry restructuring [3][6][9]. - The tax burden for non-investment gold enterprises has increased, with input tax deductions dropping from 13% to 6%, effectively raising gold procurement costs by approximately 70,000 yuan per kilogram [6][8]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the new tax policy, the Shenzhen Shui Bei market has seen a notable decline in trading activity, entering a "semi-stagnation" state as businesses await clearer operational guidelines [2][9]. - Retail prices for gold jewelry have increased, with reports indicating a rise of 60 to 70 yuan per gram in various stores, reflecting the industry's response to the new tax burdens [10]. Industry Restructuring - The new tax regulations are expected to lead to a reshaping of the competitive landscape, with smaller businesses likely to struggle due to their reliance on price advantages, while larger brands may be less affected due to their pricing power [10][11]. - Analysts predict that the industry will experience a wave of consolidation, with weaker players potentially exiting the market as the cost of compliance with the new regulations rises [10][11]. Shift to Formal Markets - The new tax policy is anticipated to drive a shift from informal to formal market transactions, as the tax advantages for trading through exchanges become more pronounced. This is expected to enhance market transparency and reduce illegal trading activities [12][13]. - The policy maintains tax exemptions for transactions conducted through exchanges, encouraging investment in standardized gold products and potentially leading to a structural change in consumer demand towards investment-grade gold [13][14].