美股历史最强月份出师不利

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the U.S. stock market, particularly concerning AI-related stocks, amid concerns over high valuations and the ongoing government shutdown, which has led to economic uncertainty and low consumer confidence [3][4]. Economic Indicators - The Challenger Job Cuts report indicated a significant increase in layoffs, with October's figures rising by 183% month-over-month to 153,074, the highest for this period since 2003 [4]. - The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.3, marking a historical low, with the current economic conditions index dropping from 58.6 to 52.3 and the economic expectations index declining from 50.3 to 49.0 [5]. - The ISM Services Index rose to 52.4, indicating a return to expansion in the services sector, while the final manufacturing PMI increased from 52.0 in September to 52.5 [5]. Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve have increased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December rising from 68% to 72% [6]. - Federal Reserve officials have not provided clear signals regarding rate cuts, with the Vice Chair emphasizing a cautious approach as the policy nears neutral levels [6][7]. Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock market experienced a notable decline, with the Nasdaq Composite falling by 3.3%, marking its largest weekly drop since March 31 [9]. - Concerns over high valuations have been prevalent, with warnings from financial executives about the risks of a significant market correction in the next 6 to 24 months [9]. - The S&P 500 is testing its 50-day moving average, which has not been breached since April, indicating a critical technical support level [10]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The ongoing government shutdown is impacting consumer confidence and contributing to a deteriorating market breadth, suggesting fewer stocks are participating in market gains [10]. - There is speculation that if the S&P 500 can establish support at the 50-day moving average, it may encourage buying interest in the short term [10].