21世纪经济报道·2025-11-10 11:20Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the contrasting trends in gold investment and consumption in China, with a significant increase in gold ETF holdings and a decline in retail gold consumption, leading to store closures among major retailers [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Investment Trends - As of the first three quarters of 2025, domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 79.015 tons, a year-on-year growth of 164.03% compared to 2024 [1]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a total trading volume of 23,800 tons and a trading value of 176.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.45% and 41.55%, respectively [3]. - Global central banks have increased their gold reserves, with gold's share in global reserves rising from 24% to 30% as of October 2025 [7][8]. Group 2: Gold Consumption Trends - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's gold consumption decreased to 682.73 tons, a decline of 7.95% year-on-year, with jewelry consumption dropping by 32.5% [3]. - Major retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang have reported significant store closures, with Chow Tai Fook closing 905 stores in 2025, averaging 2.5 closures per day [4][5]. - The demand for gold bars and coins increased by 24.55%, indicating a shift towards investment products amid high gold prices [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article notes that the surge in gold prices, with the London spot price reaching $3,825.30 per ounce, has been driven by strong investment demand and central bank purchases [7]. - Predictions for gold prices by the end of 2025 range from $4,200 to $4,600 per ounce, with varying views on the average price for 2026 [9]. - The article emphasizes that while gold remains a safe-haven asset, short-term price volatility is expected [9].