创业邦·2025-11-10 00:08Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the electric vehicle (EV) market, highlighting that while the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached a record high of 57.8% in September, the growth rate is slowing down, indicating a shift towards a more competitive landscape between electric and gasoline vehicles [5][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In October, the EV retail penetration rate is expected to continue rising, potentially surpassing 60% by year-end [5]. - The article suggests that the EV market is entering a phase of stock competition, where competition among manufacturers is intensifying, making it difficult for all players [7][10]. - The article emphasizes that the EV market is currently constrained by two major factors: entrenched consumer perceptions and deteriorating business models [8][20]. Group 2: Consumer Perception - Consumer skepticism towards EVs remains strong, with many expressing concerns about safety and reliability, which are difficult to change [14][16]. - The article notes that recent accidents involving EVs have further eroded consumer trust, making it challenging for manufacturers to reassure potential buyers [14][16]. - The article highlights that the perception of EVs being heavily reliant on government subsidies is prevalent, with consumers feeling that the market is not yet level between EVs and gasoline vehicles [17][18]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Major players like Tesla and BYD have seen a decline in profitability, with Tesla's net profit dropping by 29% and BYD's by 32.6% in the last quarter, attributed to increased competition and rising operational costs [25][26]. - The article points out that the overall profitability of the automotive industry is declining, with the profit margin dropping from 9.0% in 2014 to 4.3% in 2024, indicating a challenging environment for manufacturers [33]. - Porsche's significant drop in operating profit by 99% in the first nine months of the year is cited as an example of the financial strain faced by companies in the transition to electric vehicles [26][29]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article mentions the upcoming reduction in EV purchase subsidies, which will test the market's ability to sustain itself without government support [18]. - The "Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" emphasizes a dual approach of promoting both electric and gasoline vehicles, indicating ongoing competition in the market [36]. - The article concludes that for EVs to achieve true success, they must overcome the challenges posed by entrenched perceptions and a deteriorating business model [38].