俄罗斯液化天然气低价流入中国

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian LNG exports and how these sanctions are inadvertently benefiting China, as Russian LNG is being sold at a discount to the Chinese market despite pressure on Japan and Europe to halt imports [2][4][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite U.S. pressure on Japan and Europe to stop importing Russian LNG, the market has not shown significant signs of supply-demand tension due to increasing LNG supplies from the U.S. and other countries [2][4]. - The current spot price for LNG in Asia, as indicated by the January 2026 contract, is around $11.0 to $11.5 per million BTU, significantly lower than the peaks observed at the onset of the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2022 [4][10]. Group 2: Russian LNG Flow to China - Russian LNG is being sold to China at prices 20-30% lower than the market rate, with shipments continuing despite sanctions [9][10]. - As of now, China has imported 13 shipments of LNG from Russia, with the latest shipment arriving at the Beihai terminal in Guangxi province [6][9]. Group 3: Japan's Energy Security Concerns - Japan relies on long-term contracts for Russian LNG, which account for approximately 9% of its total LNG imports, making an immediate halt to imports risky due to potential price increases from alternative sourcing [10][11]. - The Japanese government is cautious about U.S. calls for sanctions, emphasizing the need to balance energy security with international obligations [11][12]. Group 4: Future Projections - Analysts have adjusted the supply expectations for the Arctic 2 project, forecasting an increase to 1.3 million tons in 2025 and 3.9 million tons in 2026, reflecting ongoing shipments to China [10].