特朗普大方画饼：全民发2000美元“关税红包”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses former President Trump's proposal to distribute $2,000 "dividends" to Americans funded by tariff revenues, amidst declining support and recent electoral losses for the Republican Party [3][5]. Group 1: Proposal Details - Trump's plan aims to provide $2,000 to Americans, excluding high-income individuals, funded by tariff revenues [4]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that implementing this plan could lead to a fiscal loss exceeding twice the tariff revenue, which is insufficient to support such large-scale payouts [4][8]. - The proposal has been made twice in 2023, indicating Trump's focus on improving his public image [4]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The CRFB estimates that distributing $2,000 to all Americans would result in an annual expenditure of approximately $600 billion, while the federal tariff revenue for the fiscal year was only $195 billion [8]. - If limited to 150 million adults earning less than $100,000 annually, the total payout would still reach around $300 billion, far exceeding the tariff income [8]. - Historical data suggests that large cash distributions could trigger inflation, as seen during the pandemic when stimulus checks contributed to a 40-year high inflation rate [8]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The U.S. is currently facing significant fiscal challenges, with a projected federal budget deficit of $1.8 trillion for the 2025 fiscal year [11]. - The CRFB warns that annual implementation of the dividend could increase the deficit by $6 trillion over ten years, which is double the expected revenue from Trump's tariffs [11]. - If the Supreme Court rules against the legality of the tariffs, the remaining revenue may only support dividends every seven years [11]. Group 4: Public Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Recent polls indicate a decline in Trump's support, with a net approval rating of -18%, and significant dissatisfaction regarding his handling of inflation and economic issues [14]. - Consumer confidence has dropped, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index falling to a three-year low, reflecting concerns about the economic impact of the government shutdown [14]. - Economic analysts suggest that the current market conditions are precarious, with potential risks of recession or renewed inflation [15].