刚刚！“18罗汉”，突然异动！

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a significant shift with large-cap stocks gaining momentum, particularly the top 18 stocks, which collectively exceeded a market capitalization of 20 trillion yuan. This change is attributed to a shift in market risk appetite and a preference for traditional large-cap stocks, especially in the banking and energy sectors [1][2][4]. Market Performance - On November 12, the A-share market initially saw a decline, with major indices like the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index dropping over 1%. However, large-cap stocks later rallied, with the Agricultural Bank of China hitting a new historical high, rising by 3%. Other notable performers included Midea Group, China Petroleum, and China Bank, each increasing by around 2% [2][4]. - Despite the overall index recovery, the number of declining stocks remained high, with over 3,800 stocks falling, indicating a mixed market sentiment [2]. Capital Flow - Southbound capital saw a significant net inflow of 12.748 billion yuan during the week of November 3 to November 7, with major inflows directed towards the banking, non-banking financial, and oil and petrochemical sectors, amounting to approximately 184 million yuan [2][4]. Underlying Logic - Analysts suggest that the recent performance of large-cap stocks is likely due to a change in market risk preferences, with a current macro leverage ratio of about 12.46 times. The technology sector is perceived to have high valuations, while the broader market indices exhibit structural risks [4]. - The strengthening of the US dollar, which has surpassed the 99 mark, is expected to influence market dynamics, with traditional sectors showing resilience during market downturns. Analysts predict that sectors previously underweighted, such as coal, photovoltaic, banking, and chemicals, will benefit as the market recovers [4]. - Looking ahead to November 2025, there is a recommendation to increase allocations in domestic stocks and commodities, favoring large-cap stocks and a balanced growth-value approach, particularly in sectors like coal, photovoltaic, telecommunications, and agriculture [4].