起点锂电·2025-11-12 10:22Core Viewpoint - The price of VC (Vinylene Carbonate), an important additive in electrolytes, has surged to 60,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a more than 30% increase from its lowest point, driven by a significant supply-demand imbalance in the lithium battery materials market [1]. Group 1: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for VC is rapidly increasing due to explosive growth in the energy storage market and rising requirements for VC in lithium iron phosphate batteries, with the additive ratio reaching 4%-6% [1]. - On the supply side, the price of VC had been declining since 2021 due to overcapacity, dropping from a peak of 600,000 yuan per ton to around 43,000-45,000 yuan per ton by the end of July this year [1]. - The industry has faced continuous losses, leading to stagnation in capacity expansion, with planned capacities not being released on schedule and existing capacities being repurposed for other industries [2]. Group 2: Production Capacity and Future Outlook - Major companies like Huasheng Lithium Battery and Yongtai Technology are expanding their VC production capacities, with Huasheng expected to reach 45,000 tons by the second half of next year [3][4]. - The overall industry is projected to see an effective supply increase of about 20,000 tons by 2026, while demand is expected to rise by approximately 30,000 tons, leading to a widening supply-demand gap [5]. - The average industry capacity utilization rate is anticipated to reach 90% by 2026, with strong price increase demands from the industry due to years of losses [5]. Group 3: Price Trends and Market Expectations - The price of VC is expected to continue rising, with market predictions suggesting an average price of 100,000 yuan per ton by 2026, significantly benefiting leading companies in the sector [5]. - The price increase is also influenced by the rising costs of other core materials, such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, which has seen a price increase of over 140% [2].