当“十五五”遇上老龄化提速，养老金融如何拆解“灰犀牛”难题？

Core Viewpoint - Aging is not a "black swan" but a visible "gray rhino" that is approaching, emphasizing the urgent need for a robust pension financial system to address the challenges posed by an aging population [3][5]. Group 1: Current Situation and Trends - China has the largest elderly population globally, with one in four elderly individuals living in the country. By 2024, the population aged 60 and above is expected to reach 310 million, and it will exceed 400 million by 2035 [5][7]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the need to accelerate the development of a multi-tiered pension insurance system to address the rapid aging process [8]. Group 2: Pension Financial System Development - The pension system is undergoing significant changes, transitioning from a savings-based model to an investment-based model, requiring differentiated services and product development from pension financial institutions [8]. - A new wave of technological revolution, including advancements in AI and quantum computing, is creating new investment opportunities and demands for pension services [8]. - The low-interest-rate environment is becoming the new normal, necessitating strategies to enhance the long-term asset creation capabilities of pension funds [8]. Group 3: Constructing a Pension Financial Loop - A well-functioning pension financial loop is essential for converting aging pressures into economic development drivers. This loop connects national savings to support technological innovation and industrial upgrades [10]. - Long-term capital from pensions can address the capital patience issues faced by industries, enabling advancements in sectors like solid-state batteries [10]. - The development of industries supported by pension funds will provide better products and services for the elderly, enhancing their consumption potential and creating a positive economic cycle [10]. Group 4: Challenges and Solutions - Current challenges in the pension financial sector include insufficient tax incentives, limited policy leverage, and a lack of targeted policies for small and medium enterprises [12]. - Proposed solutions involve combining effective markets with proactive government roles, engaging families and enterprises in pension contributions, and optimizing the design of the three-pillar system [12]. - The integration of innovation, funding, product, and talent chains is crucial for developing new pension products and ensuring effective investment channels [12]. Group 5: Opportunities for Insurance Companies - Insurance companies are positioned to transition from risk providers to comprehensive lifecycle service providers, integrating various aspects of elderly care [14]. - Future strategies for insurance companies should focus on solidifying basic pension insurance investments, enhancing asset management capabilities, and creating integrated ecosystems that combine insurance and wellness services [14].