“三年大考”来临，发起式基金命运不一

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing risk of fund liquidation for many initiated funds due to persistent scale challenges, despite some funds managing to attract additional investments and avoid closure [2][3][8]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Challenges - Several initiated funds are facing imminent liquidation, with a notable example being a fund that will terminate if its scale remains below 200 million yuan by November 2025 [3]. - As of the end of Q3, some funds, including certain pension FOFs, have scales of only a few million yuan, indicating a high risk of liquidation if no new investments are made [3]. - The phenomenon of "self-rescue" is observed in some funds, where temporary inflows allowed them to surpass the 200 million yuan threshold, thus avoiding liquidation [4]. Group 2: Successful Funds - Some initiated funds have become "star products," significantly increasing their scale and avoiding survival crises. For instance, the Yongying Technology Select fund has achieved a return of 246.27% and a scale of 11.52 billion yuan [5]. - Other funds, such as Yongying Advanced Manufacturing Select, have also surpassed 20 billion yuan in scale, demonstrating that strong performance can attract substantial investments [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Fund Establishment - The timing of fund establishment plays a crucial role in performance, with many initiated funds launched during market downturns, allowing them to acquire undervalued assets that can appreciate when market sentiment improves [6]. - The lower establishment threshold for initiated funds enables quicker launches during market lows, with over 300 initiated products established in 2022 alone [6]. Group 4: Industry Competition and Fund Liquidation - The accelerated pace of initiated fund liquidations reflects intense competition within the fund industry, with resources concentrating on high-quality funds [8]. - The ongoing coexistence of fund liquidations and new fund launches indicates a challenging environment where only funds with strong performance and competitive advantages are likely to survive [8].