AI、自主可控等将是明年A股主线！野村最新观点来了

Core Viewpoint - Nomura emphasizes China's focus on resilient, stable, and inclusive economic growth from 2026 to 2030, driven by significant investments and industrial policies, particularly in the semiconductor and AI sectors [2][6]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Global economy shows significant resilience despite challenges such as rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions, supported by AI transformation and flexible trade adjustments [4]. - Asia (excluding Japan) is expected to face a challenging external environment while maintaining strong performance in the tech sector, driven by AI demand and a supercycle in storage chips [5]. - China's economic growth remains steady, but potential challenges include weak domestic demand and rising global trade barriers [8]. Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - Policy support, liquidity, and industrial upgrades are identified as core drivers for the future rise of A-shares, with AI and high-value exports being key themes for the upcoming year [6][2]. - Despite high valuations in A-shares, the equity risk premium remains reasonable, indicating potential for continued market support [6]. Group 3: AI and Technology Sector - The trend towards a self-sufficient AI supply chain in China is becoming increasingly evident, with significant investments in AI infrastructure and the development of large language models [10][11]. - The internet sector's focus will remain on strategic investments in AI by leading platforms and the competitive landscape in instant retail, with expectations of reduced competition intensity in the fourth quarter [11]. Group 4: Policy and Investment Focus - The Chinese government is likely to shift its policy focus towards stabilizing growth and alleviating price pressures, with fiscal expansion becoming a key agenda item [8].