中美储能未来发展，瑞银最新研判

Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is expected to enter a "prosperity cycle" driven by the demand from artificial intelligence data centers, with a significant increase in power and storage needs over the next five years [2][3]. Group 1: Global Storage Demand - UBS predicts that global storage demand may grow by 40% year-on-year by 2026, driven by strong demand for AI data centers in the U.S. [3] - Emerging markets in the Middle East, Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia may see storage demand growth rates of 30% to 50% or higher [3]. Group 2: U.S. Storage Market - The U.S. is experiencing unprecedented demand for data centers due to the growth of cloud computing and AI, but aging power infrastructure and regulatory barriers are limiting electricity supply [4]. - The inability of local utility companies to provide power has led to potential delays for data center projects in California, highlighting the bottleneck in the AI industry due to power supply issues [4]. - Renewable energy is the only power generation sector expected to see significant growth in the U.S. over the next five years, necessitating more batteries for energy storage [4]. Group 3: Chinese Storage Market - In China, market-driven pricing for renewable energy is expected to accelerate the development of storage projects, which can profit by charging during low electricity prices and selling during high prices [6]. - A price differential of 0.4 yuan per kilowatt-hour between peak and valley electricity prices is sufficient for independent storage projects to be profitable [6]. - UBS anticipates the introduction of a "capacity compensation" mechanism in various Chinese provinces to incentivize storage by compensating battery owners when needed [7]. Group 4: Market Share and Profitability - The U.S. market will remain a key market for Chinese storage manufacturers, which currently hold a 20% market share in the U.S. [5]. - The U.S. is expected to be one of the most profitable markets for storage manufacturers in the coming years [5].