突变！美联储传来大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected retirement of Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, introduces uncertainty into the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, amidst political pressure for rate cuts and internal divisions within the Fed [4][6][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - Raphael Bostic announced his retirement effective February 28, 2026, which is seen as a move to avoid potential controversy over reappointment [6][7]. - Bostic's departure coincides with a critical period for the Federal Reserve, as it prepares to approve new five-year terms for regional Fed presidents [6]. - The Fed is currently experiencing significant personnel changes, with Bostic leaving just months before new leadership is expected [7]. Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - Bostic expressed concerns about inflation being a major risk to the U.S. economy and indicated a preference to maintain current interest rates until inflation trends towards the Fed's 2% target [7]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is currently at 59.4%, with a 40.6% chance of maintaining rates [12]. - John Williams, President of the New York Fed, suggested that the Fed may need to restart bond purchases to maintain control over short-term interest rates [8][10]. Group 3: Economic Data and Implications - Due to the government shutdown, key economic data such as the October employment report and Consumer Price Index (CPI) may not be released, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [12][13]. - The absence of this data could hinder the Fed's ability to make informed decisions during its upcoming meetings [13].