大摩预测：2028年美国电力缺口将达20%

Core Insights - The article highlights the potential energy crisis in the U.S. due to the rapid growth of AI, predicting a power shortfall of up to 20% by 2028, which could equate to a deficit of 13 to 44 gigawatts (GW) of electricity [1][2] - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are driving this demand, planning to invest nearly $400 billion by 2025 to expand AI computing capabilities, but face significant power supply challenges [1][2] Group 1: Energy Demand and Supply Challenges - The construction of data centers takes about two years, while power transmission lines can take up to ten years, creating a mismatch in supply and demand that strains the U.S. power grid [2] - Data centers currently consume 4% of U.S. electricity, with projections suggesting this could rise to 12% by 2030, driven by the non-linear growth of AI demand [2] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley note that the infrastructure for AI is at the center of this transformation, with significant implications for asset valuations [2] Group 2: Alternative Power Solutions - The report suggests several "rapid power" solutions, including Bloom Energy fuel cells (adding 5-8 GW), natural gas turbines (adding 15-20 GW), and nuclear power (adding 5-15 GW) to alleviate power shortages [3] - Companies like Amazon and Google are exploring small modular reactors, while the U.S. government plans to build ten new nuclear plants by 2030 [3] Group 3: Innovative Approaches - Some companies are considering radical solutions such as space-based solar power and satellite data centers, with Google planning tests for solar-powered AI chips by 2027 [4] - In the short term, transforming Bitcoin mining facilities into AI computing centers could help bridge the power gap [5] Group 4: Future Business Models - Two emerging business models are expected to shape AI infrastructure: "New Cloud" (short-term AI leasing agreements) and "REIT Endgame" (long-term power shell leasing agreements) [5][7] - Power shells are defined as data center facilities that provide only power and network access [6] Group 5: Broader Implications - The strain on the power grid will affect not only the tech industry but also lead to higher electricity costs for businesses and limited site options for new data centers [8] - Regulatory pressures may increase to expedite infrastructure upgrades, and consumers could face rising electricity prices in areas where demand exceeds supply [8] - Investors may find opportunities in companies providing grid upgrades, transmission systems, cooling technologies, and alternative energy solutions, while those reliant on stable power supplies may face risks [8]