全固态电池2030年商用？这些大咖这样说

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cautious outlook of industry experts and entrepreneurs regarding the rapidly hyped all-solid-state battery concept, emphasizing the need for significant technological breakthroughs and long-term development before commercialization can occur [3][6]. Industry Overview - China's power battery industry has maintained its position as the world's largest for eight consecutive years, with sales reaching 786 GWh and exports exceeding 129 GWh in the first three quarters of this year, reflecting year-on-year growth of 48.9% and 32.75% respectively [5]. - The industry is experiencing accelerated technological iterations, with all-solid-state batteries being a focal point of attention, particularly in capital markets [6]. Expert Opinions - Industry leaders express skepticism about the timeline for all-solid-state battery commercialization, with estimates ranging from 2030 to as late as 2035 for large-scale deployment [7]. - There is a consensus that while all-solid-state batteries are promising, they face significant scientific, engineering, and cost challenges that require time to overcome [7][8]. Alternative Technologies - Experts suggest that consumers planning to purchase vehicles in the next 3-5 years should not wait for all-solid-state batteries, as current liquid and semi-solid batteries are already effective [8]. - The industry is encouraged to focus on next-generation batteries rather than solely on all-solid-state technology, as the ultimate form of battery technology remains uncertain [8][9]. Future Trends - A report presented at the conference outlines seven major trends in battery development, highlighting the rapid market adoption of semi-solid batteries and the ongoing research into all-solid-state batteries [9]. - The report anticipates that by 2030, semi-solid batteries will achieve a capacity density of over 450 Wh/kg, while all-solid-state batteries are expected to complete pilot testing and small-scale applications around the same time [9]. Conference Highlights - The 2025 World Power Battery Conference featured discussions on various industry topics, including battery recycling, quality enhancement, and international supply chain development, showcasing the event's role in promoting global collaboration [10]. - A total of 180 projects were signed at the conference, amounting to 861.3 billion yuan, indicating strong industrial momentum and development potential in key green energy sectors [10].