解码南向资金首破“5万亿”！背后两大趋势：港股定价权增强、正循环效应显现！

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has reached a new milestone with significant inflows of southbound capital, indicating a transformation in market liquidity and activity, driven by strategic allocations from mainland investors seeking undervalued assets and high-quality stocks [2][4]. Group 1: Southbound Capital Inflows - On November 10, southbound capital through the Stock Connect net inflow reached 6.654 billion HKD, bringing the year-to-date net purchase amount to over 1.3 trillion HKD, and the cumulative net inflow since the launch of Stock Connect surpassed 5 trillion HKD [2][4]. - The major indices in the Hong Kong market, including the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, have all seen year-to-date increases of over 30%, positioning them among the top performers globally [4]. - In 2023, southbound capital showed a significant acceleration in inflows, with 57 trading days recording net inflows exceeding 10 billion HKD, primarily concentrated in the first half of the year [4][5]. Group 2: Factors Driving Inflows - The increase in southbound capital is driven by five main factors: valuation discounts compared to A-shares, ongoing demand for tech leaders and high-dividend assets in a declining domestic interest rate environment, optimized connectivity mechanisms, inherent demand from long-term domestic funds, and enhanced liquidity expectations due to global interest rate cuts [5][6]. - The phenomenon of "asset scarcity" is also noted, where abundant capital is seeking quality assets, leading to increased southbound capital inflows as domestic funds look for effective allocation opportunities [6]. Group 3: Pricing Power and Market Dynamics - The continuous inflow of southbound capital has improved liquidity in the Hong Kong market and enhanced the pricing power of mainland funds, which accounted for approximately 34.64% of the market's trading volume in 2024 [8]. - As of now, the market value held by southbound capital is about 6.21 trillion HKD, representing 12.93% of the total market capitalization [8]. - Insurance and public funds constitute over 40% of the southbound capital, with public funds showing a compound annual growth rate of 23.5% in their holdings from 2020 to 2025 [8][9]. Group 4: Valuation and Future Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market remains attractive in terms of valuation compared to global markets, with the forward P/E ratio of the Hang Seng Tech Index at 20.4, lower than its five-year average and significantly below the Nasdaq's 30.9 [12]. - The influx of mainland capital and the listing of more unique enterprises in Hong Kong are expected to create a positive feedback loop, enhancing liquidity and profitability in the market [11]. - Despite the high gains in 2023, the Hong Kong market's valuation still presents a compelling case for further investment from mainland funds [12].