未来的世界会怎样？从风险预警到全球秩序重构丨两说

Global Economic Development: Trends and Drivers - The current global economic landscape is characterized by political factors becoming more significant than economic ones [4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a decline in global economic growth from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, indicating a challenging environment influenced by political uncertainties and U.S. trade policies [6] Systemic Risk Warnings in Global Economic Development - Three vulnerabilities in the global economy are highlighted: financial system fragility, political order instability, and ecological environment weakness [9] - Financial system risks include rising government debt levels, particularly in the U.S., which could reach 140%-150% of GDP, potentially leading to a debt crisis and market pressure [9] - Political vulnerabilities stem from the long-term nature of U.S. policy shifts and the failure of global governance systems, necessitating countries to strategize for cooperation [11] - Ecological vulnerabilities emphasize the importance of global collaboration on climate issues, with China playing a crucial role in technology sharing and funding allocation for decarbonization efforts [13] Reconstruction of Global Order - Concerns about maintaining peace are raised, particularly with the rise of far-right movements in the West, reminiscent of historical precedents that led to global conflict [14] - The global trade landscape is expected to shrink, yet globalization will continue to advance despite setbacks, with a shift towards a multipolar currency system diminishing the dominance of the U.S. dollar [15]