Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is entering a new cycle characterized by a dual resonance of demand structure upgrades and supply-side optimization, leading to a new round of simultaneous volume and price increases [3] Group 1: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The chain reaction of "demand → capacity → materials" is rapidly forming under the new cycle, with a persistent supply-demand gap driving prices upward [4] - The price of lithium carbonate has surged from 58,000 yuan/ton at the end of May 2025 to 83,000 yuan/ton by November 3, 2025, marking a cumulative increase of over 43% [4] - Strong terminal demand for lithium carbonate is continuously supporting the current price increase cycle, driven by high production rates meeting even higher demand, resulting in a temporary shortage [5] Group 2: Production and Capacity - In October 2025, lithium battery production showed significant growth, with new energy vehicle sales increasing by 20% year-on-year, reaching 1.715 million units, which accounted for 51.6% of total new car sales, a historical high [6] - Domestic lithium carbonate production in October 2025 continued to grow, with a month-on-month increase of 6% and a year-on-year increase of 55% [7] - The average operating rate in the industry is rising, with leading manufacturers operating at full capacity and second-tier manufacturers quickly recovering their utilization rates [7] Group 3: Financial Performance of Key Companies - Tianqi Lithium achieved a revenue of 7.397 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 26.5%, but net profit turned positive at 180 million yuan compared to a loss of 5.701 billion yuan in the same period last year [8] - Ganfeng Lithium reported a revenue of 14.625 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.02%, with net profit rising by 103.99% to 26 million yuan [8] - Salt Lake Industry's revenue for the first three quarters was 11.111 billion yuan, up 6.34% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.503 billion yuan, an increase of 43.34% [9] Group 4: Market Outlook - In the short term, the limited supply increase and the peak demand season are expected to maintain a tight balance in the lithium carbonate market, with prices likely to remain strong and approach 90,000 yuan/ton [10] - In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to the rhythm of lithium mine capacity release and its alignment with downstream demand, with industry bottom prices having been largely established, predicting prices to operate in the range of 70,000 to 100,000 yuan/ton [11] - Innovations such as solid-state batteries could significantly impact future lithium prices, with potential applications in emerging fields like humanoid robots and electric aircraft, further expanding lithium demand [11]
锂电新周期启动 碳酸锂再次逼近9万元！
起点锂电·2025-11-13 10:13