又一个“电子茅台”来了，谁在买单？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant price increase in memory products, particularly DRAM and SSDs, driven by a "super cycle" in the memory supply chain, influenced by rising demand from the AI industry and structural supply constraints [5][17][29]. Group 1: Price Trends - The price of 16GB DDR4 memory has surged from around 200 RMB to over 400 RMB within a year, with some models increasing by more than 300% [10][12]. - The price of high-end DDR5 memory has also doubled, with some models reaching prices close to 2000 RMB, reflecting a significant increase in demand [12][20]. - The average price of mainstream 1TB PCIe4.0 SSDs has risen by over 60% since the beginning of the year, with some models seeing price hikes of up to 80% [15]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - The AI industry's growth is the primary driver of increased demand for memory, with AI servers requiring eight times more DRAM than standard servers [18][20]. - The demand for memory is further exacerbated by the recovery of the consumer electronics market and the rise of smart technologies, such as smart cars, which require higher storage capacities [25][29]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - Major memory manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix are shifting production towards high-end chips, reducing the supply of DDR4 memory [21][22]. - The discontinuation of DDR4 production by leading manufacturers indicates a persistent supply shortage, which is expected to last until at least mid-2026 [24][22]. Group 4: Market Speculation - Speculative behavior in the market has amplified price volatility, with some dealers hoarding memory products in anticipation of further price increases [26][28]. - The article warns that while there may be opportunities for profit, the risks associated with speculation in the memory market are high, and many may end up as "bag holders" [30][36]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The transition from DDR4 to DDR5 and HBM is irreversible, suggesting that the memory market will continue to see price increases [29]. - Domestic memory manufacturers are expected to gain market share as they ramp up production, potentially stabilizing prices in the long term [36].