合理看待2%的通胀目标，促进物价合理回升要发挥政策合力

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the signs of stabilization and recovery in major price indicators, with CPI turning from decline to an increase of 0.2% year-on-year in October, and core CPI rising by 1.2%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [2]. Price Stabilization - Major price indicators have shown signs of stabilization and recovery due to more proactive macro policies and consumption promotion measures [2]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months [2]. Inflation Target Perspective - Experts suggest that China's inflation target of around 2% should be viewed from a medium to long-term perspective, acknowledging the time lag in the effects of macro policies, especially monetary policy [4]. - The shift in macroeconomic regulation should focus more on promoting consumption and improving people's livelihoods rather than relying heavily on investment [4]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The low price levels in China are fundamentally a result of the supply-demand relationship, characterized by strong supply and weak demand in the real economy [5]. - Demand-side factors include a slowdown in traditional real estate and infrastructure investments, while new growth drivers like technological innovation and green development are emerging but may not fill the gap in traditional investment demand in the short term [6]. - On the supply side, the long-standing investment-driven development model has led to inefficiencies and over-competition in some sectors, resulting in rapid capacity expansion in emerging industries [7]. Macro Policy Adjustments - Recent macro policy adjustments have shown increasing effectiveness, with significant consumer subsidies and support for personal consumption loans reflecting a shift towards policies that prioritize improving livelihoods and promoting consumption [8]. - In the first three quarters, consumption contributed 53.5% to economic growth, an increase of 9 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a stronger role of consumption as an economic growth engine [9]. - The focus of fiscal policy has shifted from primarily investment in projects to improving people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, aligning with the transition to high-quality development [9].