第一财经·2025-11-13 12:50Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry chain has experienced a significant surge, with the lithium electrolyte index rising by 19.41%, reaching a new high since January 2022, driven by a sharp increase in the prices of key materials like lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolytes [3][4]. Price Dynamics - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has more than doubled compared to its low in July, with some market quotes exceeding 150,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a rise of over 165% since the bottom [4][5]. - The electrolyte price has also seen a rapid increase, with a two-day rise surpassing the total increase of the past two months [5]. Demand and Supply Factors - The demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) has surged, with sales reaching 11.196 million units from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.6%, and battery installations growing by 42.5% [5][6]. - The energy storage market is becoming a new growth driver for lithium battery demand, with shipments of lithium batteries for energy storage reaching 430 GWh in the first three quarters, a 99% increase year-on-year [5][6]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Industry leaders express optimism about market demand for the coming year, but they also emphasize a more cautious and rational approach to capacity expansion following previous price volatility [4][9]. - The current price increase is expected to be sustained in the short term, but the sustainability of this trend will depend on the pace of demand growth and the release of new capacity [7][9]. Long-term Trends - The head manufacturers agree that the market will see steady demand growth in 2026, but they anticipate a more rational price behavior compared to the extreme fluctuations of previous years [9][10]. - New capacity for lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to be released between 2026 and 2027, which could lead to downward pressure on prices if demand does not keep pace [9].