央行，发布重要数据

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing shift in China's financing structure, with an increasing reliance on government bonds and a decrease in traditional bank loans, indicating a strategic move to support economic growth and stabilize financial conditions [2][3][4]. Financing Structure - As of October 2025, the total social financing stock reached 437.72 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year. The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.01 trillion yuan, up 6.3%, while government bonds increased by 19.2% to 93.03 trillion yuan [2]. - The proportion of RMB loans to the real economy in the total social financing stock decreased by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 61%, while government bonds' share rose by 2 percentage points to 21.3% [2]. Economic Indicators - Broad money (M2) stood at 335.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%. Narrow money (M1) reached 112 trillion yuan, up 6.2%, showing a significant recovery from previous lows [6]. - The October PMI output index was at 50.0%, indicating stable economic activity, with the non-manufacturing business activity index at 50.1%, reflecting expansion [6][7]. Policy Support - The government is increasing the issuance of bonds to support major projects and stabilize the economy, with a focus on reducing corporate debt and easing financial pressures on businesses [3][8]. - The Ministry of Finance has pre-allocated 500 billion yuan for new local special bonds for 2026, which is expected to bolster investment significantly [8]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.2% year-on-year in October, while the core CPI increased by 1.2%, indicating signs of stabilization in price levels [9]. - The central bank's supportive monetary policy is expected to continue influencing price recovery, with a focus on maintaining a balance between economic support and avoiding excessive monetary easing [11][12]. Long-term Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the shift towards a consumption-driven economy is essential, with a need for structural reforms in fiscal spending to enhance consumer capacity and willingness [13]. - The government's long-term inflation target of around 2% is viewed as a reasonable goal, with expectations that macroeconomic policies will gradually yield positive results [10][12].