这些指标不仅事关美国消费者，更关系美国假日经济是否放缓

Core Insights - The upcoming holiday consumer outlook in the U.S. is negatively impacted by inflation, labor market slowdown, and tariff factors, with only consumers aged 65 and above planning to increase spending compared to last year [2][3]. Consumer Spending Trends - Consumers aged 35 and below are primarily responsible for the decline in gift spending, while those aged 35-45 and 55-64 are tightening their budgets in non-gift areas [3]. - The average holiday-related spending per consumer is projected to be $990 in 2025, a 6.9% decrease from $1,063 in 2024, and close to the 2023 estimate of $985, but lower than the 2022 ($1,006) and 2021 ($1,022) levels [7]. - Planned spending on gifts is expected to drop to $650, down 3.9% from last year's $677, marking the lowest level since 2022 [7]. - Non-gift spending, including food and decorations, is anticipated to decrease by 12% to $340 [7]. Employment and Retail Dynamics - Retailers and hotel groups are hiring the fewest seasonal employees in over a decade, with a reported 8.4% decrease in holiday job postings and a 12% drop in temporary hotel staff recruitment [3][12]. - The cautious hiring reflects a pessimistic outlook for the holiday shopping season, with consumer confidence at its lowest since June 2022 [14]. - Major retailers like Target and Amazon are planning to hire fewer seasonal workers compared to previous years, indicating a trend of reduced labor demand in the retail sector [15]. Consumer Behavior Changes - Consumers are becoming more pragmatic, favoring essential items over luxury gifts, with only about 5% citing AI and social media recommendations as key factors in their purchasing decisions [7]. - There is an increased interest in purchasing toys, games, and gift cards in 2025, with toys and games expected to become the top category for purchases [7]. - The proportion of consumers planning to buy gifts online remains steady at 43%, with higher income consumers showing a greater inclination towards online shopping [9]. Economic Outlook - Experts indicate that U.S. domestic demand is declining due to inflation and tariff impacts, with a notable shift towards a "K-shaped" economic recovery [11]. - Predictions suggest that holiday sales will grow by only 3.7% to 4.2% this year, lower than the previous year's growth rate of 4.3% [14].