多位美联储官员为降息预期“泼冷水”

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials have expressed caution regarding the rising expectations for interest rate cuts, indicating that the current interest rate levels are closer to neutral rather than overly tight, suggesting limited room for significant rate cuts in the near future [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that after two rate cuts this year, the policy rate is now closer to neutral, with inflation around 3% still above the 2% target, necessitating continued efforts to combat high inflation while supporting the labor market [4]. - Other Fed officials echoed similar sentiments, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack emphasizing the need to maintain restrictive rates to apply downward pressure on inflation, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noting that approximately 3% inflation remains high [4]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly mentioned that after two rate cuts this year, the balance between the goals of full employment and price stability has returned to a more balanced state, but service sector inflation has not shown sustained decline, warranting a more restrained market expectation for further easing [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following the cautious remarks from Fed officials, futures market pricing adjusted, with traders' bets on a December rate cut dropping from over 60% to around 50%, indicating a cooling confidence in the prospect of a rate cut [2]. - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with ADP reporting a private sector job increase of only 42,000 in October, while Challenger reported a significant rise in announced layoffs to 153,000, the highest for October since 2003 [6]. - Consumer sentiment is also weakening, with the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index falling to 50.3, the lowest since 2022, reflecting deteriorating expectations regarding job and income prospects [6]. Group 3: Challenges Faced by the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is navigating a complex situation with incomplete data due to prolonged government shutdowns, relying more on private and survey data to assess economic conditions [7][8]. - Musalem acknowledged the importance of restoring credible and sustainably updated official data, but noted that the Fed can still form reasonable judgments about economic conditions through financial market rates and other indicators [8].