第一财经·2025-11-14 04:00Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) sector is experiencing volatility due to market rumors and supply-demand imbalances, with recent events highlighting the fragility of the industry's current state [3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following rumors about the failure of a polysilicon storage platform, stocks in the PV sector, including companies like Aters and Longi Green Energy, saw significant fluctuations, with some stocks rising over 5% after the rumors were debunked [3]. - The market's intense reaction to the storage rumors indicates the existing supply-demand imbalance and pricing pressures within the PV industry [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The PV industry is currently facing dual pressures from both supply and demand sides, with overcapacity and slowing demand being significant concerns [5]. - According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), the global new production capacity from 2023 to 2024 is sufficient to meet the actual PV installation demand for 2025, with existing capacities potentially meeting demand until 2035 [5]. - BNEF estimates that global polysilicon inventory has likely exceeded 500,000 tons, marking a historical high, while domestic inventory in China is expected to surpass 400,000 tons by the end of the year [5]. Group 3: Export and International Markets - The export of Chinese PV products is becoming a focal point, with significant market shares in regions excluding the U.S. and India, which impose trade barriers [6][7]. - Key overseas markets for Chinese PV products include the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia, where government support for long-term PV development is anticipated to drive growth [7]. - Chinese PV products benefit from competitive pricing and supply chain advantages, with manufacturing costs around 8 cents per watt, significantly lower than costs in the U.S. and other regions [7].