国际能源署最新预测

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a significant oversupply in the global oil market, with a daily surplus expected to exceed 4 million barrels by 2026, which is about 4% of global demand [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The IEA's report highlights that the global oil market will continue to experience an imbalance between supply and demand due to increased production from oil-exporting countries and a slowdown in demand growth [1]. - OPEC and non-OPEC countries have coordinated to increase production since April, contributing to the rising supply levels [1]. - Global oil supply is projected to grow by an average of 3.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, while demand growth for next year is expected to be 770,000 barrels per day [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Production Changes - As of September, global oil inventories have surged to nearly 8 billion barrels, the highest level since July 2021, primarily due to increased storage from maritime transport [2]. - In October, global oil production increased by an average of 6.2 million barrels per day compared to the beginning of the year, with Saudi Arabia contributing 1.5 million barrels per day to this increase [2]. - Despite sanctions on Russian oil companies, Russia's oil exports have not been significantly impacted, contributing only 120,000 barrels per day to the overall increase [2].