全线跳水！利空来了！美联储，降息大消息

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have changed dramatically, with the probability of a cut now falling below 50% after previously being nearly fully priced in [2][4] - Many traders believe that the decreasing likelihood of a rate cut in December could trigger a sell-off in the markets, as evidenced by significant declines in European and U.S. stock indices [6] - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressed skepticism about the necessity of a rate cut in December, citing stronger-than-expected economic resilience and indicating that he has not yet made a decision on the best course of action for the upcoming monetary policy meeting [8][10] Group 2 - A month ago, the market had a 95% probability of a rate cut, but uncertainty has increased due to a lack of official data during the government shutdown, leading to concerns among Fed officials about making decisions in a "data blackout" [11] - Boston Fed President Susan Collins suggested that interest rates should remain at current levels for some time to balance inflation, which is around 3%, and a weakening labor market, while other previously dovish officials have also shifted towards a more hawkish stance [11][12] - The recent divergence within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) complicates the decision-making process for Chairman Powell, who may need to consider a compromise approach, potentially signaling that further rate cuts are unlikely after a possible December cut [13][14]