TINCI(SZ:002709) 21世纪经济报道·2025-11-14 12:10Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery electrolyte industry is experiencing a significant surge in prices and stock performance, driven by rising demand and supply constraints, particularly in the context of key materials like lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) and vinyl carbonate (VC) [1][2][4]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Vinyl carbonate (VC) saw a daily increase of 14.81% on November 12, leading the price surge in the lithium battery materials sector [1]. - The electrolyte sector, particularly lithium hexafluorophosphate, has seen prices rise sharply, with LiPF6 prices increasing from approximately 50,000 CNY/ton at the end of June to around 107,500 CNY/ton by the end of October, marking a monthly increase of 76% [2][4]. - The concentration of LiPF6 production is significant, with 60% of capacity held by three major companies: Tianqi Materials, Mofluid, and Tianji [4]. Supply Agreements and Future Outlook - Tianqi Materials has secured long-term supply contracts, including a notable agreement with Guoxuan High-Tech for 870,000 tons of electrolyte products from 2026 to 2028 [5]. - The contracts are expected to stabilize sales, with an average of 533,000 tons per year, significantly higher than the projected total output of 500,000 tons for 2024 [5]. Profitability Expectations - Investment institutions have raised profit expectations for companies in the sector, with Huatai Securities increasing Tianqi Materials' 2026 profit forecast by 234% to 5.179 billion CNY [1][7]. - The stock price of Tianqi Materials reached 46.61 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 91.3 billion CNY as of November 14 [9]. Market Performance and Stock Reactions - The Wind lithium battery electrolyte index has approached its 2021 cycle peak following significant price increases in November [2][18]. - The average stock price increase for companies in the Wind electrolyte sector was 43.76% from early November to mid-November, with individual stocks like Huasheng Lithium and Haike New Source seeing increases of 149.53% and 90.95%, respectively [14][20]. Broader Industry Implications - The rapid price increases in LiPF6 have had a ripple effect across the supply chain, leading to price hikes in related materials such as VC, which has nearly doubled in price since the end of October [12][13]. - The overall market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of continued price increases in the electrolyte sector, although the supply-demand balance has not yet returned to the highs of 2021 and 2022 [18][20].