10月国民经济数据最新解读

Core Viewpoint - The economic indicators for October showed a downward trend due to factors such as last year's high base, deep adjustments in the real estate sector, and weak domestic demand, although there were still some positive signs in consumption and industrial production [1][10]. Economic Indicators - The industrial added value for October grew by 4.9% year-on-year, a decline of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, marking the lowest monthly growth rate of the year [3]. - The service production index increased by 4.6% year-on-year, down 1 percentage point from the previous month, also reflecting the impact of last year's high base [3]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in October grew by 2.9% year-on-year, the lowest monthly growth rate this year, with certain categories experiencing negative growth due to last year's high base [4][5]. Investment Trends - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.7%, with infrastructure investment down by 0.1% and real estate development investment down by 14.7% [5]. - High-tech sector investments showed rapid growth, with aerospace and equipment manufacturing investment increasing by 19.7% and information services investment growing by 32.7% [5]. Trade Performance - The total import and export volume in October grew by 0.1% year-on-year, with exports declining by 0.8% and imports increasing by 1.4% [6]. - The decline in export growth was attributed to last year's high base, with overall trade stability observed when combining September and October data [6]. Policy Implications - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and 500 billion yuan in local debt limits is expected to support economic recovery, although the effects will take time to materialize [12][13]. - There is a growing necessity for enhanced growth policies to address weak domestic demand and the deep adjustment in the real estate market [14][15].