日股“缺乏过热迹象”，8成存上涨空间

Core Viewpoint - The Nikkei average index has recently stagnated after surpassing the unprecedented 50,000 points, with caution regarding short-term adjustments. However, Japanese stocks are still considered "undervalued" compared to the U.S. market, and there is potential for a continued upward trend in the long term [2][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nikkei average index has experienced a rapid increase over the past six months, surpassing the growth rate seen during the bubble economy of the late 1980s, leading to concerns about short-term corrections. Despite this, approximately 80% of Japanese stocks still have room for growth [2][5]. - The index reached its lowest point of the year at 31,136 points on April 7, following the impact of Trump's tariffs, and surged to 52,411 points by the end of October, reflecting a monthly increase of over 10% [4][5]. - Historical comparisons show that the current monthly average increase of over 10% is unprecedented, with previous significant periods like the post-black Monday recovery averaging only 3% [5][6]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Yoshino, a senior technical analyst, has had to revise his predictions for the Nikkei index's peak multiple times this year, noting that such consistent surpassing of expectations is unprecedented [4]. - The Nikkei index's deviation from its 200-day average exceeded 30% at the end of October, while the broader TOPIX index showed a deviation of only 16%, indicating potential overvaluation in the Nikkei [7]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Despite the Nikkei index reaching 50,000 points, there are still interesting investment opportunities for contrarian investors, as many stocks are not overbought, with only about 20% exceeding their target prices [6][8]. - The TOPIX index's expected price-to-earnings ratio (PER) is 16 times, slightly above its 10-year median of nearly 14 times, while the U.S. S&P 500 index's expected PER is 23 times, highlighting the relative undervaluation of Japanese stocks [8]. - Analysts suggest that Japan's stock market is in the "third phase of a long-term upward trend," with historical phases indicating that the current period is still in its mid-term stage [8].