联邦政府停摆“后遗症” 或逐步显现

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the U.S. stock market following the end of the government shutdown, highlighting concerns over economic data absence and the potential impact on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, particularly regarding AI stocks' high valuations [3][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Nasdaq index fell over 2% in one day, marking a significant decline after a strong performance earlier in the year, with a drop of about 5% from its October peak [5][6]. - Risk aversion spread to European and Asian markets, with major indices experiencing declines, and Bitcoin hitting a six-month low [5][6]. - Credit spreads have widened, indicating increased liquidity pressure in the market [6]. Group 2: Economic Data Concerns - The government shutdown resulted in an "information vacuum," affecting the collection of key economic data, including inflation and employment figures [6][7]. - The uncertainty surrounding the release of October inflation data and employment reports has led to a significant reduction in the expected likelihood of a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [7][8]. Group 3: Valuation and Market Sentiment - The S&P 500's expected price-to-earnings ratio stands at 22.8, significantly above its 10-year average of 18.8, raising concerns about the sustainability of current valuations [7][8]. - High-performing sectors, particularly technology, are experiencing increased volatility, with notable declines in stocks like Palantir and Oracle [7][8]. Group 4: Systematic Market Pressures - The market is facing potential "anti-dispersion" effects, driven by large-cap tech stocks, which could lead to further market instability [11]. - Tax-loss harvesting and year-end window dressing by fund managers may exacerbate selling pressure on underperforming stocks [11][12]. - The presence of negative dealer gamma in options trading could amplify market volatility, as traders may need to sell more futures contracts during downturns [12][13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the market's liquidity may have peaked, with potential warning signs emerging from bank stocks or credit spreads [13]. - The global trend of monetary easing is expected to slow down, with a significant reduction in anticipated interest rate cuts in the coming year [13].