再创年内新高！这类资产继续大涨，后市分歧出现？

Core Viewpoint - The price of port thermal coal has surpassed 830 yuan/ton, reaching a new high for the year, but the rate of increase is slowing down due to heightened market caution among traders [1][4]. Price Trends - As of November 14, the "CCTD Bohai Rim thermal coal spot reference price" for different specifications is reported as follows: 5500K at 831 yuan/ton, 5000K at 736 yuan/ton, and 4500K at 641 yuan/ton, marking increases of 62 yuan/ton, 65 yuan/ton, and 69 yuan/ton respectively since the beginning of the year [4]. - Despite the new high, the price increase is tapering off, with traders exhibiting fear of high prices and a noticeable cooling in market sentiment [2][4]. Market Sentiment - There is a divergence in traders' outlooks for the future; some remain optimistic, believing that the price will rise again after a brief pause, while others anticipate a potential price correction due to profit-taking and expectations of a warmer winter reducing demand [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The China Electricity Council's report predicts a balanced national power supply and demand during the winter peak, but highlights tight supply in certain regions, particularly in North and East China [5]. - The National Energy Administration emphasizes the importance of ensuring coal supply in key areas and has urged coal-producing regions to enhance communication and coal procurement channels [5]. Policy Impact - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies in the coal industry are expected to play a crucial role in rebalancing supply and demand, countering previous expectations of long-term oversupply [6]. - In October, China's raw coal production was 40.675 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, indicating a tightening supply due to policy constraints [6]. Demand Insights - In October, the industrial electricity generation reached 800.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, driven by high temperatures in southern regions, which kept electricity demand elevated [7]. - The daily coal consumption by terminal users in eight coastal provinces increased by 9% year-on-year in October, contributing to a notable rise in coal prices during the month [7].