内部风向有变，美联储12月降息概率上演“过山车”

Core Viewpoint - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has fluctuated significantly, dropping from nearly 95% to around 50%, influenced by the U.S. government shutdown and inflation concerns stemming from tariff policies [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Stance - Kansas City Fed President George Schmidt reiterated opposition to rate cuts, citing persistent high inflation with the September CPI rising to 3%, well above the Fed's 2% target [2]. - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan expressed similar views, indicating she would oppose a rate cut unless there is convincing evidence of a faster-than-expected decline in inflation or significant labor market deterioration [2]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized maintaining stable monetary policy until clear evidence shows inflation nearing the 2% target, highlighting the risks to price stability over labor market signals [3]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions within the FOMC - There are noticeable divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with some members advocating for caution and others supporting rate cuts, leading to uncertainty in monetary policy direction [3][4]. - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed concerns about the risks of premature rate cuts in light of persistent inflation and the impact of the government shutdown on data availability [4]. - Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated that the threshold for additional easing is high due to ongoing inflation concerns, suggesting that maintaining current rates may be appropriate in the current uncertain environment [4]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Predictions - The CME FedWatch Tool indicated that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut dropped to 44%, reflecting the Fed's internal divisions and the diminishing likelihood of a rate cut in December [5]. - Analysts from Bank of America and Nomura predict that the Fed will likely hold rates steady in December, aligning with the cautious sentiment expressed by several Fed officials [6].