楼天城：VLA帮不了L4

Core Insights - The article discusses the advancements in autonomous driving technology, particularly focusing on the transition from Level 2 (L2) to Level 4 (L4) autonomous vehicles, emphasizing the complexity and safety challenges involved in achieving L4 autonomy [5][19][21]. Group 1: Technological Advancements - PonyWorld, a world model technology, enhances the safety of Robotaxi, making it ten times safer than human drivers [9]. - The cost of the autonomous driving kit has decreased by 70% compared to previous generations, with all components now being vehicle-grade [8][30]. - The integration of perception, prediction, and control into an end-to-end model has been achieved, which is now standard for L4 vehicles and a requirement for L2 vehicles [15][16]. Group 2: Learning Models - The article highlights two learning modes: imitation learning, which is quick but limits the learner's potential, and reinforcement learning, which allows for exploration and surpassing the teacher [12]. - L4 companies are evolving through reinforcement learning, while L2 remains within the bounds of imitation learning [12][21]. Group 3: Market and Product Development - The transition to L4 technology for personal vehicles is expected to take longer than anticipated, with significant operational and regulatory challenges still to be addressed [22]. - The Robotaxi fleet has accumulated over 500,000 hours of operation, indicating a significant step towards practical deployment [29]. - The company aims to achieve cost reduction through vehicle-grade components and eliminating the need for human drivers, marking a significant milestone in the development of autonomous vehicles [33]. Group 4: Industry Perspectives - The article discusses the limitations of Vision-Language Models (VLA) in L4 applications, suggesting that specialized models are necessary for the extreme safety requirements of autonomous driving [17]. - The author compares the current state of embodied intelligence to the state of autonomous driving in 2018, indicating a similar need for patience and long-term development [26].