43天停摆落幕，市场却反跌？

Group 1 - The article discusses the end of a 43-day government shutdown in the U.S. and its impact on market sentiment, highlighting that liquidity is driven by confidence rather than just the amount of money available [2][8] - The shutdown caused significant disruptions across various sectors, particularly affecting federal employees and consumer spending, leading to a decline in household income and consumption capacity [3][5] - Despite the availability of idle funds in the monetary market, the lack of confidence resulted in a stagnation of effective liquidity, as individuals prioritized capital preservation over spending [6][7] Group 2 - The temporary funding bill is described as a "contradictory extension agreement," which, while not fundamentally resolving political divisions, alleviates immediate operational crises and restores some level of confidence [9][31] - The resumption of government operations is expected to restore economic activities, clear supply chain bottlenecks, and improve the functioning of the aviation control system [10][11] - The article emphasizes that the return of confidence will activate dormant liquidity, leading to a revival in corporate investment plans, relaxed bank credit, and increased consumer spending [15][16] Group 3 - The article identifies two unresolved variables that could affect market sentiment: the cooling expectations for interest rate cuts and the potential for renewed government shutdown risks [20][31] - The expectation for interest rate cuts has shifted from a high probability to a more uncertain outlook, causing a rotation of funds away from technology and growth stocks towards defensive sectors [26][28] - The temporary funding bill does not fundamentally resolve the underlying political disagreements, suggesting that the risk of another shutdown remains, which could continue to weigh on market confidence [36][40] Group 4 - The article concludes that the market's reaction to the shutdown and its resolution is fundamentally about confidence, asserting that policy certainty is more crucial for activating liquidity than monetary easing [66][70] - It suggests that the current market sell-off is a short-term emotional response rather than a permanent devaluation of assets, and that as the impact of the shutdown fades, the market is likely to return to rational pricing [69][72] - Investors are encouraged to focus on core values and long-term opportunities, emphasizing the importance of policy certainty and corporate profitability in navigating market fluctuations [73][74]