商用车迎来新能源化拐点：重卡突围

Core Viewpoint - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in China has surpassed 30%, indicating a shift from policy-driven growth to market-driven growth in the sector [2][3]. Sales Performance - In the first ten months of 2025, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 10.929 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25.7%. Among these, new energy passenger vehicles sold 10.28 million units (up 24%), while new energy commercial vehicles sold 649,000 units (up 60.2%) [2]. - In October 2025 alone, new energy passenger vehicle sales were 1.377 million units (up 10.3%), and new energy commercial vehicle sales were 82,000 units (up 52.4%) [2]. Market Trends - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles has remained above 30% for two consecutive months, suggesting a significant market transition [3]. - The growth of new energy commercial vehicles is outpacing that of passenger vehicles, with a notable increase in the penetration rate from 24.4% in October 2024 to 30.9% in October 2025 [9]. Industry Events - The 2025 China International Commercial Vehicle Exhibition highlighted new energy models as the focal point, with a ratio of 2:1 between new energy and fuel vehicles [5]. - Major players like BYD and Dongfeng are actively participating in the new energy commercial vehicle market, with ambitious goals for market penetration and product launches [5][6]. Technological Advancements - The industry is witnessing a technological shift, with core technologies migrating from passenger vehicles to commercial vehicles, enhancing the market penetration of new energy commercial vehicles [10]. - The rapid growth of new energy heavy trucks is a significant driver, with sales increasing from 34,000 units in 2023 to 137,000 units in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 184.1% [12]. Economic and Policy Factors - The economic viability of new energy heavy trucks is improving, supported by favorable policies such as tax exemptions and incentives for electric vehicles [13]. - Local governments are also implementing supportive measures to promote the electrification of heavy trucks, indicating a collaborative effort to enhance the market [13]. Future Outlook - The new energy heavy truck market is expected to become increasingly competitive, with traditional manufacturers and new entrants vying for market share as penetration rates rise [12][14]. - The industry faces challenges such as battery technology limitations and the need for a comprehensive ecosystem to support the transition to electric vehicles [14][15].