姚期智、王兴兴发声！预见人工智能“下一个十年”

Core Viewpoint - The future development of artificial intelligence (AI) is centered around achieving satisfactory general artificial intelligence (AGI), which will significantly impact various sectors including science, strategy, and economic competition [2][3]. Group 1: Directions Towards AGI - The journey towards AGI will inevitably focus on four key directions: continuous evolution of large models, embodied general intelligence, AI for science, and AI safety governance [5][8]. - In the past five years, China has made remarkable progress in large model development, reaching a competitive level internationally [7]. - Embodied intelligence is crucial for enhancing robots' capabilities, allowing them to perform tasks that were previously difficult due to their rigid nature [8]. - AI for science is expected to revolutionize scientific research methodologies within the next 5 to 10 years, making collaboration between scientists and AI essential for competitive advantage [9]. Group 2: Risks and Governance - The development of AI poses significant safety risks, as it can potentially lead to loss of control and conflict with human intentions [10][11]. - AI algorithms inherently possess characteristics such as lack of robustness, uncertainty, and non-interpretability, which can impact societal values and ethics [11]. - Addressing the "survival risk" associated with AI requires the development of provably safe AI systems, leveraging theories from cryptography and game theory [12]. Group 3: Future of Robotics - The next decade is anticipated to transform robots from mere tools into life partners, capable of understanding the world and performing various tasks [14][17]. - Robots will increasingly collaborate with humans in industrial settings and provide assistance in community services, such as elderly care [17]. - The robotics industry will benefit from open-source collaboration to accelerate technological advancements and reduce innovation costs [17]. Group 4: Market Potential - The AI market is projected to reach a trillion-dollar scale as it empowers various industries, with open-source initiatives playing a crucial role in fostering commercial growth [19][20]. - The focus on intelligent terminals as potential AI entry points highlights the importance of integrating AI into everyday life, particularly in the automotive sector [22].