特朗普政府若被裁定败诉，大法官巴雷特：退还关税可能会“非常混乱”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of the U.S. Supreme Court's decision regarding the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), particularly focusing on the refund process if the tariffs are deemed illegal [3][4]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings and Implications - The Supreme Court's oral arguments indicate skepticism about the legality of the tariffs, with a decision expected as early as December this year or January next year [3][4]. - If the court rules against the Trump administration, over $100 billion in tariffs may need to be refunded, along with potential interest and compensation claims from businesses [4][9]. Group 2: Perspectives from Importers - Importers believe that the refund process will not be chaotic, as customs documentation clearly outlines the tariffs paid on imported goods [6][7]. - Executives from small businesses express confidence in the ease of claiming refunds due to the detailed nature of customs declarations, despite concerns about the current administration's handling of tariff issues [7][8]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Business Challenges - The tariffs are projected to affect $223 billion worth of U.S. exports and could lead to the loss of approximately 141,000 jobs [8]. - The uncertainty caused by frequent changes in tariff laws has created significant challenges for small business owners, leading to increased operational costs [11]. Group 4: Customs and Refund Process - The refund process for tariffs deemed illegal is expected to be straightforward, similar to past practices under the Generalized System of Preferences [10][12]. - However, the potential increase in refund claims may overwhelm customs brokers, who are already facing staffing shortages [10][12].