美联储，降息预期生变！

Group 1 - The global stock market faced a significant downturn, referred to as "Black Friday," influenced by hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials and concerns over the performance "bubble" of AI companies [1] - The Middle East stock market was the first major market to open for trading this week, showing varied performance across different countries [1][3] Group 2 - The Egyptian stock market saw a strong performance, with the EGX 30 index rising by 2.54% to close at 41,211.27 points, surpassing its previous historical high [2][6] - In contrast, the Saudi stock market index fell by 1.12%, closing at 11,052.61 points, with notable declines in individual stocks such as Saudi Aramco [4][5] - The Qatari stock index decreased by 1.01%, marking three consecutive days of decline, while the Kuwaiti index also fell by 0.57% [7] Group 3 - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has dropped below 50%, with only a 44.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut, while the probability of maintaining the current rate has risen to 55.6% [9][10] - Market analysts express concerns over the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's decisions, particularly due to recent labor market data and inflation rates remaining above the target [10] Group 4 - The A-share market is expected to be influenced by external factors, with short-term liquidity likely remaining loose, but a slowdown in capital inflow is anticipated [12] - Analysts suggest that the market is currently in a phase of searching for a main theme, with popular sectors like AI and semiconductors showing weak sustainability [12][13]