卖爆了？！市场质疑eVTOL“表演式”订单泛滥！

Core Viewpoint - The low-altitude economy, particularly eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing aircraft), is emerging as a highly promising industry, with significant interest and investment, despite existing challenges and skepticism regarding its commercial viability [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Potential and Orders - eVTOL is recognized as a key innovative vehicle within the low-altitude economy, with major manufacturers announcing substantial orders, often in the hundreds, indicating a vibrant market [1]. - Many of the eVTOL orders are intention-based rather than binding contracts, lacking legal enforceability and upfront payments, which raises questions about their true market demand [4][5]. - The industry is experiencing a mix of genuine commercial exploration and market preheating, with intention orders serving as a signal of companies' commitment to exploring commercialization [2][4]. Group 2: Regulatory and Development Challenges - Most leading eVTOL manufacturers are still in the process of obtaining airworthiness certification, which is essential before they can move to mass production and commercial delivery [2][5]. - The timeline for achieving these certifications is projected around 2027, which is seen as a critical milestone for the industry [5][8]. - The lack of established low-altitude flight service systems and ground infrastructure poses significant barriers to the operationalization of eVTOLs [1][9]. Group 3: Infrastructure Needs - The successful operation of eVTOLs requires comprehensive low-altitude infrastructure, including traffic management networks and service platforms, which are currently underdeveloped in most cities [9][10]. - There is a risk of creating isolated digital platforms if local authorities build their own traffic management systems without national standards, leading to inefficiencies and resource wastage [9][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The industry anticipates that cargo eVTOL applications will be the first to achieve widespread adoption, with passenger eVTOLs expected to see limited applications around 2027, and large-scale urban air mobility networks not expected until after 2030 [13]. - Industry leaders emphasize the importance of patience and a systematic approach to development, drawing parallels with the evolution of electric vehicles, which took years to reach widespread acceptance [14].