全球海上油气运输路线发生转变

Core Viewpoint - The report by Rystad Energy highlights that the five critical maritime routes are facing multiple risks including geopolitical conflicts, navigation safety, and environmental hazards, which could significantly impact global energy supply chains [3][13]. Group 1: Key Maritime Routes - The five key maritime routes are the Strait of Malacca, Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal/Mandeb Strait, Turkish Straits, and Cape of Good Hope, which are crucial for oil and gas transportation [3][4]. - These routes are responsible for transporting approximately 71.3 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products, and about 26 billion cubic feet per day of LNG in 2023 [5]. - The Strait of Malacca handles about 24 million barrels of oil and gas daily, accounting for one-quarter of global oil transport [5][9]. Group 2: Changes in Transportation Patterns - Due to geopolitical events in the Middle East, traders are increasingly rerouting from the Strait of Hormuz and Strait of Malacca to the Cape of Good Hope, leading to increased transportation distances and costs [3][5]. - The Cape of Good Hope has seen a significant increase in oil transport, with a nearly 50% rise in 2024 as vessels divert from the Suez Canal due to regional crises [6][7]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The rising risks in these maritime routes pose severe challenges to the resilience of global energy supply chains, with any disruptions potentially causing extreme price volatility in energy markets [5][13]. - The Strait of Hormuz remains vital, facilitating one-fifth of global oil transport and nearly half of Middle Eastern oil exports [9][10]. - The Suez Canal and Mandeb Strait are also critical, with the latter experiencing a nearly 50% drop in daily flow due to geopolitical tensions [12][13]. Group 4: Alternative Transport Routes - Middle Eastern countries are developing alternative transport routes to mitigate risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz, including pipelines with limited capacities [10]. - The Turkish Straits serve as a key transit point for oil and LNG from the Caspian region and Russia, accounting for about 5% of global maritime oil trade [12].